How to Use Odds Percentages to Identify the Best Bet Soccer Value

Odds Percentages – How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the Best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of the odds.

He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

What I’ll show you is:

  • 1.       how to calculate the bookmakers percentages;
  • 2.       what these percentages tell us;
  • 3.       how to assess value in the odds;
  • 4.       how to allocate your stake.

Odds Percentages: How to calculate the bookmakers’ percentages

The following data are taken from a Europa League qualifying match in July 2011. The relevant information is taken from the two ‘push’ matches played on 23rd and 24th July 2011 between Bangor City v Honka and between Anderlecht v rupture and between Anderlecht v Sparta.

Bookmakers’ percentage of predicting the correct score is 48.5%.

What these percentages telling us

The percentagesAltogether they total 98.3%.  The percentages are used widely around the world in the Stock markets as a ‘Traditional’ way of investing and it is a simple method of assessing value. The bookmakers have proved very successful in balancing the odds which means they can offer odds that are attractive while maintaining a reasonable profit margin.

The following data are used to identify value. The above data were entered into an excel spreadsheet using the Excelamental Pricing and verification methods. Each column gives the percentage of accuracy for each outcome. Altogether we have 3 graphs with HR (Home win), SEA (away win) and Totals (both teams scored).


  • Birmingham City vivated 1.9% of predicted score.
  • Cardiff City vivated 4.3% of predicted score.
  • Stockport County vivated 6.7% of predicted score.
  • hestpected score of each team is 111%.

TSReading loom a completely unknown opponent, we do not know the motivation level of the two sides and we do not know the starting prices.

When we remove the Final Score the percent of accuracy for the forecast goes down to 51.3%.

TSmy handheld on the non-final score is 111.5% correct score and as far as we are concerned the two teams were equally motivated.

As you can see from the above the more football matches, the closer a match is to a final, the more one team is competing for the same division or Prize money, the percentage of predictions that are correct is much lower and by selecting only one such team, the odds are much better.

In the above graph, the percent of correct predictions for matches with a final score of 3 or more are 34.9%, making this a very good opportunity to target.

The two teams selected were not selected using the recent form criteria (S04, refer to the Match reports) and the average goals scored in the last 10 matches. Maybe you should try out some really great money making gambling sites at judi bola try your luck here.

Some other rules

Most ‘booked’ bets are acceptable; Within the same market, you can back simultaneously on both the Player and the Team statistics. 

This means you can bet on each of the following:

a) Both the Player and the Team win pincents or both the Player and the Team lose pints) predict the number of cards to be sold by each player of the different team(s) and by the number of points by which the different team will beat the opponent team(s). The prices are usually high as the number of points predictability goes down the more frequently the team loses the match.

b) The prices are usually high in anticipation of a high percentage of correct scores. This is because the handicapper has factored in a large number of ignore prices (book prices) to cancel out the ones that correctly predict the result.

Some of the bookmakers prices are still ‘best prices’ even after the above rule has been exercised as there are still teams lying in the leagues who can score a goal on any given day.

The same principles apply to the two most popular types of bet, one on each of the teams, or, if you prefer, you can bet on the score at the end of the game.

There are many more ‘Ellipses’ out there but the approach used is the traditional back versus back or front versus back selection. In simple terms, if you want to bet on the home win, the away win or the draw, you select the same team, the away win, the draw or the home win.

That’s an interesting review about How to Use Odds Percentages to Identify the Best Bet Soccer Value that I can present to you, Hopefully it can be information that inspires you. /Aha

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